Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W24-16 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L23-30 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W48-23 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L13-35 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:4% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:11% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:21% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:26% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:48% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:20% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:19% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 0% | 33.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| 4-4 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 9.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 28.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 40.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 20.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kentucky
Texas
Mississippi State
Oklahoma
AlabamaCCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 0.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
KentuckyOklahomaAlabamaCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 3.5%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
33.3%
<0.1%
14.3%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28