Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
36.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W28-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W44-41 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L21-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:96% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:85% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:66% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:92% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:94% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:67% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 31.2% | 97.9% |
| 6-2 | 42.8% | 13.2% |
| 5-3 | 21.0% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 4.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5% (-28.7%) | 37.5% (+1.3%) | |
| 35.5% (-0.6%) | 39.5% (+3.3%) | |
| 38.2% (+2.1%) | 35.8% (-0.4%) | |
| 35.2% (-0.9%) | 36.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 38.3% (+2.1%) | 35.7% (-0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Georgia
Florida
Kent State
VanderbiltCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
GeorgiaCCG: 37.5% • Scenario: 95.7%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.9%
29.0%Any 1 loss
17.5%
41.9%
97.6%
0.3%
97.5%
1.9%
24.3%
1.3%
22.6%
5.0%18.9%
2.7%
17.8%
1.9%
10.5%
13.9%
9.8%
15.0%Any 2 losses
14.7%
3.1%100.0%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.1%
0.3%24.2%
<0.1%19.8%
0.2%19.3%
0.1%16.7%
0.1%13.1%
0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.7%
0.9%11.3%
0.1%9.9%
1.0%Any 3 losses
26.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28