LouisvilleCardinals

4-1 T6th (1-1) in ACC

Data from 2025-10-05 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

14.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsEastern KentuckyEKU	W51-17
2	9/05	vsJames MadisonJMU	W28-14
4	9/20	vsBowling GreenBGSU	W40-17
5	9/27	@PittsburghPITT	W34-27
6	10/04	vsVirginiaUVA	L27-30
8	10/17	@MiamiMIA	Win prob:29%
9	10/25	vsBoston CollegeBC	Win prob:88%
10	11/01	@Virginia TechVT	Win prob:80%
11	11/08	vsCaliforniaCAL	Win prob:88%
12	11/14	vsClemsonCLEM	Win prob:72%
13	11/22	@SMUSMU	Win prob:51%
14	11/29	vsKentuckyUK	Win prob:84%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-1	6.5%	96.7%
6-2	28.2%	27.2%
5-3	38.1%	0.3%
4-4	21.2%	0%
3-5	5.3%	0%
2-6	0.7%	0%
1-7	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

42.2%

24.0%

17.4%

9.3%

7.1%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
NC StateNCSU@Notre DameND	14.5% (+0.5%)	14.0% (-0.0%)
ClemsonCLEM@Boston CollegeBC	14.0% (-0.0%)	14.1% (+0.1%)
Wake ForestWAKE@Oregon StateORST	13.8% (-0.2%)	14.3% (+0.3%)
PittsburghPITT@Florida StateFSU	14.3% (+0.3%)	13.9% (-0.1%)
Virginia TechVT@Georgia TechGT	16.0% (+2.0%)	13.3% (-0.8%)
StanfordSTAN@SMUSMU	14.3% (+0.3%)	14.0% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

NC State

Boston College

Pittsburgh

Virginia Tech

Stanford

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Virginia Tech

CCG: 16.0% • Scenario: 27.9%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

96.9%

5.5%

Any 1 loss

29.9%

24.8%

95.9%

1.0%

43.0%

0.7%

38.6%

0.7%

36.6%

1.4%

33.7%

2.2%

29.8%

5.4%

22.5%

13.3%

Any 2 losses

12.7%

9.8%

39.3%

0.1%

38.1%

0.1%

37.0%

0.4%

34.7%

0.3%

30.4%

1.0%

22.8%

2.5%

1.8%

0.1%

1.5%

0.3%

1.1%

0.2%

0.7%

0.8%

0.6%

0.5%

3.5%

Any 3 losses

0.8%

2.0%

2.2%

<0.1%

1.5%

0.4%

0.9%

0.1%

0.7%

0.1%

0.6%

0.4%

0.5%

1.0%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com