Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L45-48 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-35 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-18 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:94% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:49% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:80% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:35% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:73% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:49% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:74% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 17.2% | 79.9% |
| 6-2 | 32.2% | 12.5% |
| 5-3 | 29.5% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 13.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 21.8% (+0.4%) | 21.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 21.3% (-0.1%) | 21.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 21.5% (+0.2%) | 21.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 21.1% (-0.2%) | 21.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 23.1% (+1.8%) | 20.7% (-0.7%) | |
| 7.3% (-14.1%) | 22.2% (+0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
NC State
Boston College
Oregon State
Pittsburgh
Virginia TechSMUCCG: 35.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
SMUCCG: 22.2% • Scenario: 94.5%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.6%Any 1 loss
79.9%
17.2%
88.4%
1.2%
88.1%
0.2%87.6%
1.3%
87.0%
3.6%
85.1%
0.8%
83.0%
3.7%
70.0%
6.4%Any 2 losses
12.5%
32.2%36.0%
<0.1%35.4%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%24.8%
0.5%24.1%
0.3%23.1%
1.4%21.5%
0.9%21.4%
0.3%20.9%
0.2%20.5%
1.3%19.9%
0.4%16.1%
0.2%16.0%
1.3%14.1%
2.4%13.9%
0.9%13.1%
2.3%13.1%
1.3%11.3%
1.6%10.1%
6.6%9.6%
3.7%6.8%
6.6%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05