Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-15 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W35-3 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L0-34 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W28-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L21-45 | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:67% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:42% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:40% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:12% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:70% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:26% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.2% | 78.3% |
| 6-2 | 3.4% | 14.3% |
| 5-3 | 15.9% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 32.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 31.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 14.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (-0.4%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.1%) | 0.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.2%) | 0.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.1%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
NC State
Clemson
Wake Forest
Florida State
Georgia Tech
StanfordCCG: 10.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Notre Dame
Virginia TechCCG: 0.9% • Scenario: 27.6%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
78.3%
0.2%Any 1 loss
14.3%
3.4%22.3%
0.3%19.2%
0.1%
17.9%
0.1%
17.2%
0.4%
12.6%
1.8%
12.2%
0.7%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05