Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
41.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W45-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L19-45 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L27-34 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-33 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W38-3 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W45-21 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:62% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:36% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:65% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:71% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 7.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 28.8% | 88.0% |
| 6-2 | 36.6% | 21.8% |
| 5-3 | 20.8% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 5.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 40.4% (-0.8%) | 41.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 41.4% (+0.2%) | 40.7% (-0.5%) | |
| 41.2% (-0.0%) | 41.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 40.9% (-0.3%) | 41.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 42.4% (+1.2%) | 40.7% (-0.5%) | |
| 45.1% (+3.9%) | 40.9% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
NC State
Pittsburgh
Virginia Tech
StanfordCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Notre DameVirginia TechCCG: 42.4% • Scenario: 27.6%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
5.1%Any 1 loss
89.4%
21.5%
100.0%
2.8%
96.2%
2.1%
90.1%
1.1%
89.3%
9.1%
85.3%
3.3%
79.6%
3.2%Any 2 losses
41.4%
34.1%96.3%
1.1%90.2%
0.6%89.8%
4.9%84.5%
1.8%81.9%
1.7%38.8%
0.5%33.4%
3.8%31.1%
2.1%25.9%
1.3%23.1%
1.3%21.8%
0.7%19.0%
0.7%17.0%
5.7%15.9%
5.8%12.3%
2.0%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05