VirginiaCavaliers

5-1 5th (3-1) in ACC

Data from 2025-10-05 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

25.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsCoastal CarolinaCCU	W48-7
2	9/06	@NC StateNCSU	L31-35
3	9/13	vsWilliam & MaryW&M	W55-16
4	9/20	vsStanfordSTAN	W48-20
5	9/26	vsFlorida StateFSU	W46-38
6	10/04	@LouisvilleLOU	W30-27
8	10/18	vsWashington StateWSU	Win prob:83%
9	10/25	@North CarolinaUNC	Win prob:69%
10	11/01	@CaliforniaCAL	Win prob:60%
11	11/08	vsWake ForestWAKE	Win prob:80%
12	11/15	@DukeDUKE	Win prob:39%
14	11/29	vsVirginia TechVT	Win prob:73%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-1	9.4%	98.9%
7-2	31.0%	50.2%
6-3	35.7%	1.5%
5-4	18.8%	0%
4-5	4.7%	0%
3-6	0.4%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

60.0%

11.6%

11.0%

9.6%

7.8%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
NC StateNCSU@Notre DameND	23.6% (-1.8%)	25.4% (+0.0%)
ClemsonCLEM@Boston CollegeBC	25.3% (-0.1%)	25.6% (+0.2%)
Wake ForestWAKE@Oregon StateORST	25.7% (+0.3%)	25.0% (-0.4%)
PittsburghPITT@Florida StateFSU	25.4% (+0.0%)	25.4% (+0.0%)
Virginia TechVT@Georgia TechGT	28.9% (+3.5%)	24.1% (-1.4%)
StanfordSTAN@SMUSMU	29.4% (+4.0%)	25.2% (-0.2%)

Best Winner Combination for

NC State

Clemson

Wake Forest

Florida State

Virginia Tech

Stanford

CCG: 75.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Virginia Tech

CCG: 28.9% • Scenario: 27.9%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

99.0%

7.9%

Any 1 loss

53.0%

27.3%

98.6%

1.5%

61.9%

1.9%

61.8%

3.6%

61.4%

2.9%

60.1%

5.3%

38.1%

12.1%

Any 2 losses

8.7%

34.8%

61.6%

0.8%

61.0%

0.6%

61.0%

0.4%

58.2%

1.1%

37.4%

2.4%

3.9%

0.7%

3.8%

0.9%

3.8%

1.9%

3.5%

1.3%

2.8%

1.3%

2.8%

2.5%

0.8%

5.4%

0.8%

3.0%

0.8%

4.5%

0.7%

8.2%

Any 3 losses

1.6%

5.5%

3.9%

0.3%

3.3%

0.2%

3.0%

0.5%

3.0%

0.2%

2.9%

0.4%

2.2%

0.3%

1.1%

0.9%

1.6%

0.5%

0.9%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com