Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-05

Atlantic Coast ConferenceConference Standings

T1DukeDUKE3-04-241.2%
T1Georgia TechGT2-05-021.7%
T1Miami FLMIA1-05-071.9%
T1SMUSMU1-03-221.4%
5VirginiaUVA3-15-125.4%
T6NC StateNCSU2-24-20.5%
T6LouisvilleLOU1-14-114.1%
T6PittsburghPITT1-13-21.2%
T6CaliforniaCAL1-14-20.7%
T6Virginia TechVT1-12-40.3%
T6StanfordSTAN1-12-3-
T12ClemsonCLEM1-22-30.9%
T12SyracuseSYR1-23-3<0.1%
T12Wake ForestWAKE1-23-2<0.1%
T15Florida StFSU0-23-20.6%
T15North CarolinaUNC0-12-30.2%
T15Boston CollegeBC0-31-4-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Matchups

125.9%
DukeDUKE
vs
MIAMiami FL
215.0%
Miami FLMIA
vs
UVAVirginia
312.8%
Georgia TechGT
vs
MIAMiami FL
410.2%
Miami FLMIA
vs
SMUSMU
55.8%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
MIAMiami FL
64.9%
DukeDUKE
vs
SMUSMU
73.3%
DukeDUKE
vs
LOULouisville
83.2%
DukeDUKE
vs
GTGeorgia Tech
92.9%
DukeDUKE
vs
UVAVirginia
102.8%
SMUSMU
vs
UVAVirginia
112.4%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
UVAVirginia
122.2%
Georgia TechGT
vs
SMUSMU
131.9%
Georgia TechGT
vs
UVAVirginia
141.3%
Georgia TechGT
vs
LOULouisville
151.0%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
SMUSMU

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 71.9%
Game
Miami FLCCG OddsAway
Miami FLCCG OddsHome
NC StateNCSU@Notre DameND
74.1%
(+2.2%)		71.9%
(-0.0%)
ClemsonCLEM@Boston CollegeBC
71.6%
(-0.3%)		72.6%
(+0.7%)
Wake ForestWAKE@Oregon StORST
71.8%
(-0.1%)		72.0%
(+0.1%)
PittsburghPITT@Florida StFSU
71.2%
(-0.7%)		72.3%
(+0.4%)
Virginia TechVT@Georgia TechGT
75.3%
(+3.4%)		70.6%
(-1.3%)
StanfordSTAN@SMUSMU
75.6%
(+3.8%)		71.7%
(-0.2%)

Best Winner Combination for Miami FL

NC StateNC StateClemsonClemsonVirginia TechVirginia TechStanfordStanford

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Miami FL

Virginia TechVirginia Tech

CCG: 75.3% • Scenario: 27.9%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-08-17-17-26-26-35-3Overall
Miami FLMIA100%-90.5%-24.5%-0.3%71.9%
DukeDUKE100%-88.0%-21.8%-0.1%41.2%
VirginiaUVA-98.9%-50.2%-1.5%-25.4%
Georgia TechGT100%-71.9%-12.6%-<0.1%21.7%
SMUSMU100%-79.9%-12.5%-<0.1%21.4%
LouisvilleLOU--96.7%-27.2%-0.3%14.1%
PittsburghPITT--91.1%-13.8%-<0.1%1.2%
ClemsonCLEM----19.9%-0.1%0.9%
CaliforniaCAL--78.3%-14.3%-<0.1%0.7%
Florida StFSU----10.9%-<0.1%0.6%
NC StateNCSU---68.7%-1.9%-0.5%
Virginia TechVT--87.5%-36.7%-0.4%0.3%
North CarolinaUNC--82.6%-11.0%-<0.1%0.2%
SyracuseSYR----33.0%-0.3%<0.1%
Wake ForestWAKE----58.0%-0.6%<0.1%
Boston CollegeBC------0.4%-
StanfordSTAN--50.0%-9.4%---

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-08-17-17-26-26-35-35-44-44-53-53-62-62-71-70-8Avg Wins
Miami FLMIA(1-0)28.4%0.0%41.9%0.0%22.9%0.0%6.0%0.0%0.8%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-6.9
VirginiaUVA(3-1)-9.4%0.0%31.0%0.0%35.7%0.0%18.8%0.0%4.7%0.0%0.4%----6.2
DukeDUKE(3-0)7.8%0.0%28.8%0.0%36.6%0.0%20.8%0.0%5.4%0.0%0.5%-----6.1
Georgia TechGT(2-0)4.2%0.0%18.7%0.0%32.5%0.0%28.2%0.0%13.1%0.0%3.0%0.0%0.3%---5.6
SMUSMU(1-0)3.6%0.0%17.2%0.0%32.2%0.0%29.5%0.0%13.9%0.0%3.3%0.0%0.4%0.0%<0.1%-5.6
LouisvilleLOU(1-1)--6.5%0.0%28.2%0.0%38.1%0.0%21.2%0.0%5.3%0.0%0.7%0.0%<0.1%-5.1
NC StateNCSU(2-2)---0.5%0.0%7.7%0.0%27.0%0.0%37.7%0.0%22.6%0.0%4.6%--4.1
Florida StFSU(0-2)----5.1%0.0%22.5%0.0%35.0%0.0%25.5%0.0%10.0%0.0%1.7%0.1%3.8
ClemsonCLEM(1-2)----4.3%0.0%21.1%0.0%36.2%0.0%27.4%0.0%9.7%0.0%1.4%-3.8
PittsburghPITT(1-1)--0.5%0.0%5.2%0.0%19.7%0.0%33.9%0.0%28.0%0.0%11.2%0.0%1.5%-3.8
CaliforniaCAL(1-1)--0.2%0.0%3.4%0.0%15.9%0.0%32.4%0.0%31.8%0.0%14.0%0.0%2.3%-3.6
SyracuseSYR(1-2)----0.2%0.0%4.7%0.0%22.4%0.0%38.6%0.0%27.2%0.0%6.9%-2.9
North CarolinaUNC(0-1)--<0.1%0.0%1.3%0.0%6.6%0.0%18.9%0.0%30.2%0.0%27.9%0.0%12.8%2.2%2.8
Virginia TechVT(1-1)--<0.1%0.0%0.6%0.0%4.6%0.0%17.4%0.0%34.0%0.0%32.2%0.0%11.1%-2.7
Wake ForestWAKE(1-2)----<0.1%0.0%1.5%0.0%9.8%0.0%30.1%0.0%41.1%0.0%17.4%-2.4
StanfordSTAN(1-1)--0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.7%0.0%5.7%0.0%22.1%0.0%41.7%0.0%29.8%-2.1
Boston CollegeBC(0-3)------0.2%0.0%3.1%0.0%15.3%0.0%33.9%0.0%34.4%13.2%1.6

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com