Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W61-9 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L24-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L27-34 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W48-7 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:35% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:54% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:61% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:76% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:3% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:34% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:16% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.5% | 91.1% |
| 6-2 | 5.2% | 13.8% |
| 5-3 | 19.7% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 33.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 28.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 11.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0% (-0.1%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.1%) | 1.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.7% (+1.6%) | 0.3% (-0.8%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.0%) | 1.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.5%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Boston College
Wake ForestPittsburgh
Virginia Tech
StanfordCCG: 5.9% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
PittsburghCCG: 2.7% • Scenario: 34.8%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
93.8%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
74.6%
0.6%
91.0%
0.5%
26.1%
<0.1%
22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%
18.2%
<0.1%
10.2%
<0.1%
5.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
13.7%
5.1%23.6%
0.9%21.3%
0.1%20.7%
0.3%11.9%
0.4%11.1%
0.9%10.0%
2.4%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05