Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W23-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W66-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L14-27 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W31-28 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L3-42 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:87% | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:42% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:24% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:79% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:6% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:74% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:65% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.2% | 50.0% |
| 7-2 | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| 6-3 | 20.4% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 35.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 10.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.2%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 7.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 36.3%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
50.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
3.1%
1.1%5.2%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.9%
0.3%2.7%
0.7%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05