Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
38.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W28-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W44-41 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L21-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W35-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:85% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:65% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:91% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:93% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:66% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 31.4% | 97.2% |
| 6-2 | 43.2% | 18.6% |
| 5-3 | 20.9% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 4.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 39.0% (+0.4%) | 38.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 38.1% (-0.5%) | 38.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 38.6% (-0.0%) | 38.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 38.2% (-0.4%) | 38.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 40.6% (+1.9%) | 37.9% (-0.7%) | |
| 43.2% (+4.7%) | 11.9% (-26.7%) | |
| 37.0% (-1.6%) | 38.6% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 43.2% • Scenario: 85.2%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
97.2%
29.1%Any 1 loss
22.9%
42.3%98.6%
0.3%97.4%
2.0%32.9%
5.0%27.5%
2.8%22.6%
2.1%17.7%
14.9%12.8%
15.2%Any 2 losses
18.6%
3.1%100.0%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%35.4%
<0.1%31.7%
0.2%29.7%
0.4%21.7%
0.1%18.3%
0.2%17.6%
<0.1%16.8%
1.0%11.9%
1.0%10.2%
0.1%Any 3 losses
2.0%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05