Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
68.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L17-31 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W73-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-21 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W30-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:67% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:74% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:78% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:82% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:82% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:79% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 20.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 37.6% | 95.7% |
| 6-2 | 28.1% | 42.3% |
| 5-3 | 11.0% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 2.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 68.9% (+0.3%) | 68.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 69.9% (+1.3%) | 68.2% (-0.4%) | |
| 79.8% (+11.3%) | 46.1% (-22.5%) | |
| 69.2% (+0.6%) | 68.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 69.6% (+1.1%) | 68.2% (-0.4%) | |
| 68.0% (-0.6%) | 72.1% (+3.5%) | |
| 67.2% (-1.4%) | 68.6% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
South Carolina
Oklahoma
Florida
Auburn
Washington StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaCCG: 79.8% • Scenario: 66.6%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
18.6%Any 1 loss
96.0%
35.9%
100.0%
2.1%97.6%
5.0%
96.6%
6.4%95.9%
5.1%
95.0%
9.3%
94.9%
4.0%94.3%
4.0%Any 2 losses
49.2%
29.0%97.4%
0.5%96.3%
0.6%95.7%
0.7%95.7%
1.1%94.2%
0.4%93.5%
0.4%55.7%
1.5%52.0%
1.1%47.6%
1.2%45.8%
1.7%43.7%
2.5%43.6%
1.1%43.4%
1.7%42.4%
2.6%41.9%
1.1%41.1%
2.0%41.1%
1.4%38.0%
2.0%36.9%
0.8%35.8%
3.2%35.0%
1.4%Any 3 losses
25.3%
4.9%49.0%
0.1%48.9%
0.2%48.1%
0.2%47.8%
0.1%47.1%
0.1%44.3%
0.3%44.2%
0.2%42.5%
0.2%42.0%
0.3%40.2%
0.1%37.9%
0.2%37.6%
0.1%36.0%
0.4%35.4%
0.1%34.6%
0.2%1.2%
0.3%0.7%
0.5%0.5%
0.7%0.5%
0.4%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05