Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L16-24 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-21 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W60-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L13-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W45-3 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L23-28 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:99% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:71% | |
| 11 | 11/05 | Win prob:82% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:58% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:94% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:91% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 40.4% | 30.0% |
| 5-3 | 44.7% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 13.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 22.1% (+9.9%) | 11.0% (-1.3%) | |
| 0.3% (-12.0%) | 12.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 20.8% (+8.5%) | 10.4% (-1.8%) | |
| 11.8% (-0.5%) | 15.3% (+3.0%) | |
| 12.4% (+0.1%) | 12.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 13.4% (+1.1%) | 12.1% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Central MichiganToledo
Northern Illinois
Massachusetts
Akron
Miami (OH)CCG: 35.8% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ToledoNorthern IllinoisCCG: 21.0% • Scenario: 17.6%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
29.9%
28.5%Any 1 loss
15.9%
23.0%
30.3%
11.8%
1.0%
0.3%0.6%
2.8%0.6%
6.3%
0.5%
1.8%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12