Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W17-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W23-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W20-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W56-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L19-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W20-10 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:43% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:53% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:17% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:76% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:40% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 1.1% | 89.7% |
| 6-2 | 10.6% | 13.2% |
| 5-3 | 29.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 36.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 18.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 3.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5% (+0.1%) | 2.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.3% (-0.1%) | 2.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 4.8% (+2.4%) | 0.6% (-1.8%) | |
| 2.8% (+0.3%) | 2.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.8% (+0.4%) | 2.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 2.4% (-0.1%) | 2.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.4% (-0.1%) | 2.9% (+0.4%) | |
| 2.4% (-0.1%) | 2.5% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Auburn
ArkansasLSU
Tennessee
Ole Miss
Oklahoma
Kentucky
Mississippi StateCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LSUCCG: 4.8% • Scenario: 43.3%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
90.0%
1.0%Any 1 loss
14.1%
9.7%
87.6%
0.1%24.5%
0.4%
22.2%
1.4%18.1%
1.5%
17.6%
0.9%
7.8%
5.3%Any 2 losses
13.1%
1.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.4%
0.2%23.4%
<0.1%14.3%
0.2%6.9%
0.6%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12