Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
57.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L31-34 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W17-10 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L9-37 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W52-35 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W35-20 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L14-20 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:82% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:86% | |
| 10 | 11/04 | Win prob:73% | |
| 11 | 11/11 | Win prob:80% | |
| 12 | 11/18 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:69% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 27.6% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 40.7% | 71.3% |
| 5-3 | 23.9% | 1.8% |
| 4-4 | 6.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 61.6% (+4.6%) | 56.4% (-0.6%) | |
| 60.0% (+3.0%) | 57.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 30.0% (-27.0%) | 62.8% (+5.8%) | |
| 56.6% (-0.4%) | 59.6% (+2.6%) | |
| 56.5% (-0.5%) | 57.2% (+0.2%) | |
| 61.8% (+4.8%) | 56.2% (-0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Central Michigan
Kent State
Massachusetts
AkronCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OhioCCG: 62.8% • Scenario: 82.3%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
27.6%Any 1 loss
71.3%
40.7%91.5%
0.8%
89.9%
4.4%
87.3%
5.9%
69.7%
7.1%
68.5%
12.5%
56.5%
9.9%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12