Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
31.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L10-23 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L17-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L17-20 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-30 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:85% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:92% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:37% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:77% | |
| 13 | 11/19 | Win prob:48% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:31% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 18.8% | 99.3% |
| 6-2 | 36.5% | 24.5% |
| 5-3 | 29.9% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 10.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 33.1% (+2.1%) | 30.8% (-0.3%) | |
| 36.9% (+5.9%) | 31.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 34.7% (+3.6%) | 30.3% (-0.8%) | |
| 33.8% (+2.7%) | 15.3% (-15.8%) | |
| 31.6% (+0.5%) | 30.9% (-0.2%) | |
| 35.5% (+4.5%) | 30.3% (-0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Central Michigan
Kent State
Ohio
Akron
Eastern MichiganCCG: 83.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BuffaloCCG: 33.8% • Scenario: 85.4%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.4%Any 1 loss
99.3%
18.8%100.0%
0.3%
99.8%
0.6%99.8%
1.1%
99.8%
5.6%
99.0%
3.8%98.9%
7.4%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12