Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
17.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W63-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W30-23 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W41-35 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-19 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W24-21 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L35-43 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:73% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:89% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:90% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:92% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 53.9% | 30.5% |
| 6-2 | 36.9% | 1.5% |
| 5-3 | 8.4% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 16.9% (-0.1%) | 17.5% (+0.5%) | |
| 16.3% (-0.7%) | 24.9% (+7.9%) | |
| 13.8% (-3.2%) | 20.1% (+3.0%) | |
| 16.6% (-0.4%) | 17.4% (+0.4%) | |
| 22.8% (+5.8%) | 1.1% (-15.9%) | |
| 13.9% (-3.1%) | 29.3% (+12.3%) | |
| 16.0% (-1.0%) | 18.0% (+1.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kentucky
Mississippi State
LSU
ArkansasOle Miss
South Carolina
VanderbiltCCG: 64.1% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Ole MissCCG: 22.8% • Scenario: 73.3%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
30.6%
48.6%Any 1 loss
5.4%
38.5%
29.8%
5.3%2.0%
6.2%
1.6%
17.5%
1.1%
5.2%1.1%
4.3%Any 2 losses
1.2%
3.7%1.5%
2.0%1.3%
0.5%0.9%
0.7%0.5%
0.6%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19