LouisvilleCardinals

5-1 T6th (2-1) in ACC

Data from 2025-10-19 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

27.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsEastern KentuckyEKU	W51-17
2	9/05	vsJames MadisonJMU	W28-14
4	9/20	vsBowling GreenBGSU	W40-17
5	9/27	@PittsburghPITT	W34-27
6	10/04	vsVirginiaUVA	L27-30
8	10/17	@MiamiMIA	W24-21
9	10/25	vsBoston CollegeBC	Win prob:94%
10	11/01	@Virginia TechVT	Win prob:82%
11	11/08	vsCaliforniaCAL	Win prob:90%
12	11/14	vsClemsonCLEM	Win prob:58%
13	11/22	@SMUSMU	Win prob:46%
14	11/29	vsKentuckyUK	Win prob:83%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-1	18.3%	96.1%
6-2	42.4%	22.8%
5-3	30.6%	0.0%
4-4	7.8%	0%
3-5	0.8%	0%
2-6	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

32.0%

26.9%

17.3%

15.0%

8.7%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
SMUSMU@Wake ForestWAKE	26.2% (-1.1%)	30.6% (+3.3%)
VirginiaUVA@North CarolinaUNC	26.2% (-1.1%)	30.6% (+3.4%)
SyracuseSYR@Georgia TechGT	32.1% (+4.9%)	25.9% (-1.4%)
Boston CollegeBC@LouisvilleLOU	5.5% (-21.8%)	28.6% (+1.3%)
NC StateNCSU@PittsburghPITT	26.9% (-0.4%)	27.4% (+0.1%)
StanfordSTAN@MiamiMIA	29.7% (+2.4%)	27.2% (-0.1%)
CaliforniaCAL@Virginia TechVT	27.1% (-0.2%)	27.4% (+0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

SMU

Virginia

Syracuse

Louisville

NC State

Stanford

California

CCG: 56.7% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Syracuse

Louisville

CCG: 33.6% • Scenario: 20.7%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

96.2%

15.2%

Any 1 loss

28.7%

38.5%

95.6%

3.1%

31.6%

3.4%

31.4%

1.6%

29.4%

0.9%

27.7%

11.3%

16.9%

18.1%

Any 2 losses

23.2%

7.1%

33.1%

0.7%

32.4%

0.4%

28.2%

2.2%

27.4%

0.2%

17.2%

3.6%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com