Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-19

Atlantic Coast ConferenceConference Standings

T1Georgia TechGT4-07-048.8%
T1SMUSMU3-05-241.0%
T3VirginiaUVA3-16-123.1%
T3DukeDUKE3-14-313.7%
T3PittsburghPITT3-15-210.0%
T6LouisvilleLOU2-15-127.3%
T6CaliforniaCAL2-15-20.4%
T8NC StateNCSU2-24-30.2%
T8StanfordSTAN2-23-4-
T8Miami FLMIA1-15-135.5%
11ClemsonCLEM2-33-4-
T12Wake ForestWAKE1-24-2<0.1%
T12Virginia TechVT1-22-5<0.1%
14SyracuseSYR1-33-4-
T15North CarolinaUNC0-22-4<0.1%
T15Boston CollegeBC0-41-6-
T15Florida StFSU0-43-4-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Matchups

116.2%
Georgia TechGT
vs
SMUSMU
211.2%
Georgia TechGT
vs
MIAMiami FL
38.5%
Miami FLMIA
vs
SMUSMU
48.2%
Georgia TechGT
vs
LOULouisville
56.9%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
MIAMiami FL
66.4%
Georgia TechGT
vs
UVAVirginia
75.9%
SMUSMU
vs
UVAVirginia
85.0%
Miami FLMIA
vs
UVAVirginia
94.8%
DukeDUKE
vs
GTGeorgia Tech
104.4%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
SMUSMU
113.8%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
UVAVirginia
123.2%
PittsburghPITT
vs
SMUSMU
133.1%
DukeDUKE
vs
MIAMiami FL
142.6%
DukeDUKE
vs
SMUSMU
152.2%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
PITTPittsburgh

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 48.8%
Game
Georgia TechCCG OddsAway
Georgia TechCCG OddsHome
SMUSMU@Wake ForestWAKE
46.3%
(-2.5%)		56.1%
(+7.4%)
VirginiaUVA@North CarolinaUNC
47.7%
(-1.0%)		52.0%
(+3.2%)
SyracuseSYR@Georgia TechGT
19.3%
(-29.4%)		57.0%
(+8.3%)
Boston CollegeBC@LouisvilleLOU
55.6%
(+6.9%)		48.3%
(-0.4%)
NC StateNCSU@PittsburghPITT
50.8%
(+2.0%)		48.1%
(-0.7%)
StanfordSTAN@Miami FLMIA
58.3%
(+9.5%)		48.5%
(-0.2%)
CaliforniaCAL@Virginia TechVT
47.5%
(-1.2%)		49.6%
(+0.8%)

Best Winner Combination for Georgia Tech

Wake ForestWake ForestNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaBoston CollegeBoston CollegeNC StateNC StateStanfordStanford

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Georgia Tech

Georgia TechGeorgia Tech

CCG: 57.0% • Scenario: 78.0%

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-08-17-17-26-26-35-3Overall
Georgia TechGT100%-70.4%-5.6%-<0.1%48.8%
SMUSMU100%-77.1%-7.6%--41.0%
Miami FLMIA--91.3%-11.6%-<0.1%35.5%
LouisvilleLOU--96.1%-22.8%-<0.1%27.3%
VirginiaUVA-98.0%-37.4%-0.1%-23.1%
DukeDUKE--78.5%-8.5%-<0.1%13.7%
PittsburghPITT--92.7%-5.4%--10.0%
CaliforniaCAL--88.5%-8.7%--0.4%
NC StateNCSU---68.8%-0.3%-0.2%
Wake ForestWAKE----21.5%-<0.1%<0.1%
Virginia TechVT----33.9%-0.2%<0.1%
North CarolinaUNC----11.1%--<0.1%
Boston CollegeBC--------
ClemsonCLEM--------
Florida StFSU--------
StanfordSTAN----4.4%---
SyracuseSYR------0.2%-

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-08-17-17-26-26-35-35-44-44-53-53-62-62-71-70-8Avg Wins
Georgia TechGT(4-0)18.2%0.0%40.8%0.0%30.8%0.0%9.1%0.0%1.0%-------6.7
SMUSMU(3-0)11.2%0.0%35.1%0.0%35.9%0.0%14.9%0.0%2.7%0.0%0.2%-----6.4
VirginiaUVA(3-1)-10.4%0.0%34.3%0.0%35.2%0.0%16.3%0.0%3.5%0.0%0.3%----6.3
Miami FLMIA(1-1)--33.3%0.0%43.7%0.0%19.2%0.0%3.5%0.0%0.3%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-6.1
LouisvilleLOU(2-1)--18.3%0.0%42.4%0.0%30.6%0.0%7.8%0.0%0.8%0.0%<0.1%---5.7
DukeDUKE(3-1)--12.9%0.0%41.9%0.0%34.1%0.0%10.2%0.0%0.9%-----5.6
PittsburghPITT(3-1)--8.7%0.0%35.9%0.0%40.6%0.0%13.7%0.0%1.2%-----5.4
NC StateNCSU(2-2)---0.3%0.0%5.2%0.0%23.7%0.0%39.3%0.0%26.4%0.0%5.1%--4.0
ClemsonCLEM(2-3)------22.8%0.0%47.8%0.0%25.4%0.0%4.0%---3.9
CaliforniaCAL(2-1)--0.1%0.0%2.9%0.0%16.0%0.0%36.5%0.0%34.7%0.0%9.8%---3.7
StanfordSTAN(2-2)----<0.1%0.0%1.6%0.0%14.9%0.0%43.8%0.0%39.7%---2.8
Wake ForestWAKE(1-2)----0.3%0.0%3.5%0.0%16.6%0.0%36.6%0.0%34.6%0.0%8.4%-2.7
SyracuseSYR(1-3)------0.6%0.0%13.2%0.0%47.4%0.0%32.6%0.0%6.2%-2.7
Virginia TechVT(1-2)----<0.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%8.9%0.0%29.3%0.0%42.8%0.0%17.8%-2.3
Florida StFSU(0-4)--------6.6%0.0%33.6%0.0%40.5%0.0%17.1%2.3%2.2
North CarolinaUNC(0-2)----<0.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%6.8%0.0%21.5%0.0%35.8%0.0%28.1%6.7%2.0
Boston CollegeBC(0-4)--------<0.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%11.0%0.0%39.9%47.9%0.7

Data from 2025-10-19 • SportsSimulate.com