Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-15 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W35-3 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L0-34 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W28-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L21-45 | |
| 8 | 10/17 | W21-18 | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:41% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:32% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:10% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:66% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:20% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 88.5% |
| 6-2 | 2.9% | 8.7% |
| 5-3 | 16.0% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 36.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 34.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 9.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.2%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.4%) | 0.1% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
SMU
North Carolina
Syracuse
Louisville
Pittsburgh
StanfordCaliforniaCCG: 12.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
CaliforniaCCG: 0.8% • Scenario: 40.6%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
88.5%
0.1%Any 1 loss
8.7%
2.9%
21.5%
0.3%
13.3%
0.4%12.5%
<0.1%7.2%
0.7%5.8%
1.5%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19