Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
23.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W48-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L31-35 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W55-16 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W48-20 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | W46-38 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W30-27 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W22-20 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:76% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:68% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:74% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:35% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:79% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 10.4% | 98.0% |
| 7-2 | 34.3% | 37.4% |
| 6-3 | 35.2% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 16.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 3.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 21.3% (-1.9%) | 28.7% (+5.6%) | |
| 28.8% (+5.6%) | 5.7% (-17.4%) | |
| 30.0% (+6.9%) | 21.2% (-1.9%) | |
| 25.0% (+1.9%) | 23.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 24.6% (+1.5%) | 22.7% (-0.5%) | |
| 29.2% (+6.0%) | 23.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 23.4% (+0.3%) | 22.9% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Syracuse
Boston College
NC State
Stanford
CaliforniaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
VirginiaCCG: 28.8% • Scenario: 75.5%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.0%
10.4%Any 1 loss
37.4%
34.3%
43.2%
2.9%
42.2%
3.6%41.2%
5.0%
40.6%
3.4%
34.2%
19.4%0.9%
0.9%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19