Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W61-9 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L24-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L27-34 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W48-7 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W34-31 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W30-13 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:75% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:87% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:5% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:47% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:28% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 8.7% | 92.7% |
| 6-2 | 35.9% | 5.4% |
| 5-3 | 40.6% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 13.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 9.6% (-0.4%) | 11.1% (+1.1%) | |
| 9.4% (-0.5%) | 11.7% (+1.7%) | |
| 11.1% (+1.1%) | 9.7% (-0.3%) | |
| 12.8% (+2.9%) | 9.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 1.3% (-8.7%) | 12.9% (+2.9%) | |
| 10.2% (+0.2%) | 10.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.7% (-0.3%) | 10.2% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
SMU
Virginia
Syracuse
Boston CollegePittsburgh
Stanford
Virginia TechCCG: 66.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
PittsburghCCG: 12.9% • Scenario: 75.1%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
93.2%
0.4%Any 1 loss
77.0%
10.0%
92.6%
8.2%9.8%
<0.1%
6.8%
0.1%
5.1%
1.1%
3.6%
0.5%Any 2 losses
5.4%
34.1%16.2%
1.2%11.3%
2.7%4.6%
20.9%4.2%
9.2%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19