Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
41.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L45-48 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-35 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-18 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W34-10 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W35-24 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:75% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:39% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:88% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:54% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:80% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 11.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 35.1% | 77.1% |
| 6-2 | 35.9% | 7.6% |
| 5-3 | 14.9% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 49.0% (+8.0%) | 17.0% (-24.0%) | |
| 39.9% (-1.1%) | 44.5% (+3.5%) | |
| 48.4% (+7.4%) | 38.9% (-2.1%) | |
| 44.4% (+3.4%) | 40.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 42.8% (+1.8%) | 40.4% (-0.6%) | |
| 46.7% (+5.7%) | 40.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 42.1% (+1.1%) | 40.3% (-0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Syracuse
Boston College
Stanford
CaliforniaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
SMUCCG: 49.0% • Scenario: 75.0%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
11.2%Any 1 loss
77.1%
35.1%92.0%
2.8%
86.6%
3.6%85.2%
1.5%
76.1%
9.5%
72.7%
17.7%Any 2 losses
7.6%
35.9%22.8%
0.5%21.6%
0.9%19.6%
0.3%9.5%
2.3%8.9%
6.0%8.9%
4.3%8.7%
1.3%8.6%
3.2%8.5%
2.4%4.3%
14.9%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19