Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
57.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W28-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W44-41 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L21-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W35-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W20-10 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W43-35 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:94% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:66% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:93% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 56.0% | 96.3% |
| 6-2 | 38.4% | 9.9% |
| 5-3 | 5.4% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 57.6% (-0.1%) | 58.3% (+0.5%) | |
| 57.3% (-0.4%) | 61.8% (+4.1%) | |
| 54.9% (-2.8%) | 60.4% (+2.7%) | |
| 57.9% (+0.1%) | 57.6% (-0.2%) | |
| 56.8% (-0.9%) | 60.3% (+2.6%) | |
| 57.3% (-0.4%) | 59.2% (+1.5%) | |
| 57.9% (+0.2%) | 57.5% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kentucky
Mississippi State
LSU
Auburn
Oklahoma
South Carolina
MissouriCCG: 85.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LSUCCG: 60.4% • Scenario: 51.4%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
96.3%
51.3%Any 1 loss
20.1%
39.9%
97.2%
0.5%
96.5%
4.2%
17.7%
5.4%9.5%
3.4%
8.3%
26.4%Any 2 losses
11.2%
3.2%96.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.4%
0.4%9.7%
0.3%8.9%
2.1%8.4%
0.3%6.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19