Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:68% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:71% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:20% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:4% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:20% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:31% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:85% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:41% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:5% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 87.5% |
| 6-2 | 0.6% | 14.3% |
| 5-3 | 4.9% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 18.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 34.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 29.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 10.3% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
90.9%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
14.4%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.0%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%8.5%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
13.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%15.5%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
15.6%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%Data from 2024-08-23