Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:91% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:85% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:67% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:53% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:72% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:62% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:9% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:29% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:55% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:45% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 1.1% | 56.6% |
| 7-2 | 6.1% | 5.8% |
| 6-3 | 17.0% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 27.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 26.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 15.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
57.7%
0.8%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
79.2%
<0.1%
76.5%
0.1%
72.2%
<0.1%
71.0%
<0.1%
70.0%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%
57.8%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%
47.4%
0.4%Any 2 losses
8.9%
4.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%18.0%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.6%
0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
0.5%5.0%
0.2%4.8%
0.4%4.7%
0.3%3.9%
0.3%3.4%
1.0%1.9%
0.2%1.9%
0.4%Any 3 losses
6.1%
1.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
16.8%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%Data from 2024-08-23