Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:88% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:27% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:20% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:28% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:39% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:45% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:18% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:53% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:15% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:52% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:51% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 57.4% |
| 7-2 | 0.8% | 8.3% |
| 6-3 | 3.9% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 12.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 23.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 28.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 20.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 8.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 1.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
66.7%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
38.4%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%
40.0%
<0.1%
33.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
9.6%
0.3%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
3.1%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2024-08-23