Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
20.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | L20-27 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W44-21 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W36-33 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-17 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W42-10 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W29-26 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W34-10 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | L23-38 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:30% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:72% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:94% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:78% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 15.8% | 93.5% |
| 6-2 | 48.8% | 12.1% |
| 5-3 | 29.4% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 5.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 21.1% (+0.4%) | 20.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 18.4% (-2.3%) | 23.2% (+2.5%) | |
| 25.2% (+4.5%) | 20.4% (-0.3%) | |
| 27.0% (+6.3%) | 20.2% (-0.5%) | |
| 20.1% (-0.7%) | 20.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 20.9% (+0.2%) | 19.8% (-1.0%) | |
| 23.3% (+2.6%) | 20.0% (-0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Massachusetts
Kentucky
Florida
Maine
VanderbiltCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
South CarolinaCCG: 23.2% • Scenario: 48.0%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
93.5%
15.8%Any 1 loss
12.1%
48.8%22.4%
1.0%
21.3%
4.5%
12.2%
37.3%2.8%
6.0%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27