SEC Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-27
Conference Standings
| 1 |  Texas A&MTA&M | 5-0 | 7-1 | 48.8% | |
| 2 |  GeorgiaUGA | 4-1 | 6-1 | 42.9% | |
| T3 |  TexasTEX | 3-1 | 7-1 | 54.6% | |
| T3 |  LSULSU | 3-1 | 6-2 | 20.7% | |
| T3 |  TennesseeTENN | 3-1 | 6-1 | 16.6% | |
| T6 |  AlabamaALA | 3-2 | 6-2 | 15.8% | |
| T6 |  ArkansasARK | 3-2 | 5-3 | 0.2% | |
| T8 |  Ole MissMISS | 2-2 | 6-2 | 0.3% | |
| T8 |  MissouriMIZ | 2-2 | 6-2 | <0.1% | |
| T8 |  FloridaFLA | 2-2 | 4-3 | <0.1% | |
| T8 |  VanderbiltVAN | 2-2 | 5-3 | <0.1% | |
| 12 |  South CarolinaSC | 2-3 | 4-3 | - | |
| T13 |  AuburnAUB | 1-4 | 3-5 | - | |
| T13 |  OklahomaOU | 1-4 | 4-4 | - | |
| 15 |  KentuckyUK | 1-5 | 3-5 | - | |
| 16 |  Mississippi StateMSST | 0-5 | 1-7 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 54.6%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 54.5% (-0.1%) | 54.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 49.8% (-4.8%) | 59.9% (+5.2%) | |
| 56.0% (+1.4%) | 54.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 64.6% (+10.0%) | 53.8% (-0.9%) | |
| 55.0% (+0.3%) | 54.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 55.1% (+0.5%) | 52.3% (-2.4%) | |
| 54.5% (-0.1%) | 54.7% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
MassachusettsSouth CarolinaKentuckyFlorida
MaineCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
South CarolinaCCG: 59.9% • Scenario: 48.0%
Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TexasTEX | - | 86.3% | 1.9% | 54.6% |
| Texas A&MTA&M | 100% | 86.6% | 9.7% | 48.8% |
| GeorgiaUGA | - | 93.0% | 9.4% | 42.9% |
| LSULSU | - | 93.5% | 12.1% | 20.7% |
| TennesseeTENN | - | 66.5% | 0.8% | 16.6% |
| AlabamaALA | - | - | 27.4% | 15.8% |
| Ole MissMISS | - | - | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| ArkansasARK | - | - | 49.6% | 0.2% |
| MissouriMIZ | - | - | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| FloridaFLA | - | - | 85.7% | <0.1% |
| VanderbiltVAN | - | - | 41.7% | <0.1% |
| AuburnAUB | - | - | - | - |
| KentuckyUK | - | - | - | - |
| Mississippi StateMSST | - | - | - | - |
| OklahomaOU | - | - | - | - |
| South CarolinaSC | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-10-27
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TexasTEX(3-1) | - | 62.6% | 32.7% | 4.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | - | - | - | 6.6 |
| Texas A&MTA&M(5-0) | 9.6% | 40.8% | 40.0% | 9.6% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.5 |
| GeorgiaUGA(4-1) | - | 41.7% | 44.4% | 13.1% | 0.9% | - | - | - | - | 6.3 |
| TennesseeTENN(3-1) | - | 24.1% | 65.9% | 9.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | - | - | - | 6.1 |
| LSULSU(3-1) | - | 15.8% | 48.8% | 29.4% | 5.7% | 0.2% | - | - | - | 5.7 |
| AlabamaALA(3-2) | - | - | 57.7% | 36.5% | 5.7% | 0.2% | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| Ole MissMISS(2-2) | - | - | 23.9% | 52.0% | 21.4% | 2.7% | <0.1% | - | - | 5.0 |
| MissouriMIZ(2-2) | - | - | 10.8% | 37.6% | 37.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | - | - | 4.4 |
| South CarolinaSC(2-3) | - | - | - | 26.5% | 47.4% | 23.1% | 3.1% | - | - | 4.0 |
| ArkansasARK(3-2) | - | - | 0.4% | 7.3% | 38.0% | 54.3% | - | - | - | 3.5 |
| FloridaFLA(2-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 0.9% | 10.4% | 39.8% | 48.9% | - | - | 2.6 |
| VanderbiltVAN(2-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 0.6% | 7.7% | 36.1% | 55.6% | - | - | 2.5 |
| AuburnAUB(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 0.9% | 22.6% | 60.5% | 15.9% | - | 2.1 |
| OklahomaOU(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 1.4% | 14.9% | 46.3% | 37.5% | - | 1.8 |
| KentuckyUK(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.2% | 8.9% | 90.9% | - | 1.1 |
| Mississippi StateMSST(0-5) | - | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | 0.7% | 18.3% | 81.0% | 0.2 |
Data from 2024-10-27