Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
16.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W69-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W51-10 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W71-0 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W25-15 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L14-19 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W23-17 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W24-17 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:94% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:98% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:28% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 24.1% | 66.5% |
| 6-2 | 65.9% | 0.8% |
| 5-3 | 9.6% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 17.4% (+0.8%) | 16.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 11.4% (-5.2%) | 22.2% (+5.6%) | |
| 1.6% (-15.0%) | 17.5% (+0.9%) | |
| 18.3% (+1.7%) | 16.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 16.8% (+0.2%) | 16.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 16.4% (-0.2%) | 17.5% (+0.9%) | |
| 16.3% (-0.2%) | 16.6% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Massachusetts
South Carolina
Florida
Maine
Arkansas
AuburnCCG: 66.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
South CarolinaTennesseeCCG: 23.4% • Scenario: 45.1%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
66.5%
23.9%Any 1 loss
1.1%
65.5%
64.9%
0.3%
6.8%
0.5%
6.1%
1.5%
5.4%
1.7%
0.5%
61.6%Any 2 losses
12.2%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27