Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W70-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L31-39 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W37-27 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W24-14 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L17-21 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W19-14 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L10-34 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W58-25 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:16% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:8% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:88% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:29% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 0.4% | 49.6% |
| 5-3 | 7.3% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 38.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 54.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.2%) | 1.1% (+0.9%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 20.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 1.1% • Scenario: 16.3%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
49.4%
0.3%51.2%
<0.1%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27