SEC Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-10
Conference Standings
| T1 |  TennesseeTENN | 5-1 | 8-1 | 29.4% | |
| T1 |  Texas A&MTA&M | 5-1 | 7-2 | 12.4% | |
| 3 |  TexasTEX | 4-1 | 8-1 | 78.2% | |
| 4 |  GeorgiaUGA | 5-2 | 7-2 | 8.3% | |
| T5 |  AlabamaALA | 4-2 | 7-2 | 59.7% | |
| T5 |  Ole MissMISS | 4-2 | 8-2 | 0.2% | |
| T7 |  LSULSU | 3-2 | 6-3 | 11.9% | |
| T7 |  MissouriMIZ | 3-2 | 7-2 | <0.1% | |
| 9 |  South CarolinaSC | 4-3 | 6-3 | - | |
| T10 |  ArkansasARK | 3-3 | 5-4 | - | |
| T10 |  VanderbiltVAN | 3-3 | 6-4 | - | |
| 12 |  FloridaFLA | 2-4 | 4-5 | - | |
| T13 |  AuburnAUB | 1-5 | 3-6 | - | |
| T13 |  OklahomaOU | 1-5 | 5-5 | - | |
| 15 |  KentuckyUK | 1-6 | 3-6 | - | |
| 16 |  Mississippi StateMSST | 0-6 | 2-8 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 78.2%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 78.2% (-0.0%) | 78.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 82.0% (+3.8%) | 2.0% (-76.1%) | |
| 78.3% (+0.2%) | 78.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 77.7% (-0.5%) | 78.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 78.2% (+0.0%) | 78.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 78.7% (+0.5%) | 78.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 78.5% (+0.3%) | 78.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 75.8% (-2.3%) | 78.2% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
FloridaMissouri
UL Monroe
New Mexico StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TexasCCG: 82.0% • Scenario: 95.2%
Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-1 | 6-2 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| TexasTEX | 100% | 0.7% | 78.2% |
| AlabamaALA | - | 68.2% | 59.7% |
| TennesseeTENN | 100% | 0.4% | 29.4% |
| Texas A&MTA&M | 100% | 2.6% | 12.4% |
| LSULSU | - | 25.2% | 11.9% |
| GeorgiaUGA | - | 12.1% | 8.3% |
| Ole MissMISS | - | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| MissouriMIZ | - | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| ArkansasARK | - | - | - |
| AuburnAUB | - | - | - |
| FloridaFLA | - | - | - |
| KentuckyUK | - | - | - |
| Mississippi StateMSST | - | - | - |
| OklahomaOU | - | - | - |
| South CarolinaSC | - | - | - |
| VanderbiltVAN | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-11-10
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TexasTEX(4-1) | 78.0% | 20.7% | 1.3% | <0.1% | - | - | - | - | 6.8 |
| TennesseeTENN(5-1) | 29.1% | 65.5% | 5.4% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.2 |
| AlabamaALA(4-2) | - | 87.5% | 12.2% | 0.3% | - | - | - | - | 5.9 |
| Ole MissMISS(4-2) | - | 87.2% | 12.7% | 0.2% | - | - | - | - | 5.9 |
| Texas A&MTA&M(5-1) | 10.7% | 63.3% | 26.0% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.8 |
| GeorgiaUGA(5-2) | - | 68.4% | 31.6% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.7 |
| LSULSU(3-2) | - | 47.1% | 41.5% | 10.7% | 0.7% | - | - | - | 5.4 |
| MissouriMIZ(3-2) | - | 15.2% | 56.0% | 25.7% | 3.1% | - | - | - | 4.8 |
| South CarolinaSC(4-3) | - | - | 76.0% | 24.0% | - | - | - | - | 4.8 |
| ArkansasARK(3-3) | - | - | 1.1% | 25.4% | 73.5% | - | - | - | 3.3 |
| VanderbiltVAN(3-3) | - | - | 0.7% | 15.3% | 84.0% | - | - | - | 3.2 |
| FloridaFLA(2-4) | - | - | - | 3.4% | 34.2% | 62.4% | - | - | 2.4 |
| OklahomaOU(1-5) | - | - | - | - | 2.6% | 31.2% | 66.2% | - | 1.4 |
| AuburnAUB(1-5) | - | - | - | - | 0.8% | 31.9% | 67.2% | - | 1.3 |
| KentuckyUK(1-6) | - | - | - | - | - | 2.9% | 97.1% | - | 1.0 |
| Mississippi StateMSST(0-6) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.3% | 19.1% | 80.7% | 0.2 |
Data from 2024-11-10