Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | L20-27 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W44-21 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W36-33 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-17 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W42-10 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W29-26 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W34-10 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | L23-38 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | L13-42 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:70% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:91% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:73% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 47.1% | 25.2% |
| 5-3 | 41.5% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 10.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 16.9% (+5.0%) | 0.0% (-11.9%) | |
| 10.6% (-1.3%) | 36.8% (+24.9%) | |
| 8.7% (-3.2%) | 12.9% (+1.0%) | |
| 12.4% (+0.5%) | 11.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.8% (-9.1%) | 16.1% (+4.2%) | |
| 11.6% (-0.3%) | 11.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.4% (-0.4%) | 11.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 12.1% (+0.2%) | 11.9% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Arkansas
Missouri
UL Monroe
New Mexico StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LSU
GeorgiaCCG: 22.8% • Scenario: 48.1%
Data from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
25.2%
47.1%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10