Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
78.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W56-7 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W51-3 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W35-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W34-3 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L15-30 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W27-24 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W49-17 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:95% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 78.0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 20.7% | 0.7% |
| 5-3 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 78.2% (-0.0%) | 78.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 82.0% (+3.8%) | 2.0% (-76.1%) | |
| 78.3% (+0.2%) | 78.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 77.7% (-0.5%) | 78.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 78.2% (+0.0%) | 78.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 78.7% (+0.5%) | 78.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 78.5% (+0.3%) | 78.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 75.8% (-2.3%) | 78.2% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida
Missouri
UL Monroe
New Mexico StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TexasCCG: 82.0% • Scenario: 95.2%
Data from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
78.0%Any 1 loss
2.2%
6.2%
2.5%
3.9%
1.8%
2.3%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10