Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
29.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W69-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W51-10 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W71-0 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W25-15 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L14-19 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W23-17 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W24-17 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W28-18 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W33-14 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:32% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:92% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 29.1% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 65.5% | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 5.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 29.2% (-0.1%) | 29.7% (+0.4%) | |
| 29.4% (-0.0%) | 29.8% (+0.4%) | |
| 29.6% (+0.2%) | 29.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 29.3% (-0.1%) | 29.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 92.4% (+63.0%) | 0.3% (-29.1%) | |
| 29.0% (-0.3%) | 29.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 30.1% (+0.7%) | 29.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 31.1% (+1.7%) | 29.3% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Arkansas
Missouri
Murray StateTennesseeCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TennesseeCCG: 92.4% • Scenario: 31.6%
Data from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
28.8%Any 1 loss
13.4%
2.7%
100.0%
0.3%
2.7%
2.4%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10