Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/24 | L24-29 | |
| 1 | 8/31 | W28-26 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L17-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:17% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:90% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:12% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:12% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:23% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:47% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:63% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:8% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:22% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:13% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 6-1 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 5-2 | 0.8% | 49.2% |
| 4-3 | 5.6% | 0.6% |
| 3-4 | 20.0% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 35.8% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 29.4% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 8.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.1%) | 0.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 2 losses
100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08