MemphisTigers

2-0 T3rd (0-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-09-08 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

58.8%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsNorth AlabamaUNA	W40-0
2	9/07	vsTroyTROY	W38-17
3	9/14	@Florida StateFSU	Win prob:44%
4	9/21	@NavyNAVY	Win prob:72%
5	9/28	vsMiddle TennesseeMTSU	Win prob:91%
7	10/12	vsSouth FloridaUSF(N)	Win prob:75%
8	10/19	vsNorth TexasUNT	Win prob:78%
9	10/26	vsCharlotteCLT	Win prob:94%
10	11/02	@UTSAUTSA	Win prob:64%
11	11/08	vsRiceRICE	Win prob:89%
12	11/16	vsUABUAB	Win prob:91%
14	11/28	@TulaneTULN	Win prob:50%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	10.3%	100.0%
7-1	29.4%	97.9%
6-2	33.5%	57.4%
5-3	19.1%	2.5%
4-4	6.4%	0%
3-5	1.2%	0%
2-6	0.1%	0%
1-7	0%	0%
0-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

34.9%

26.8%

15.4%

13.9%

9.0%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
TulaneTULN@OklahomaOU	59.0% (+0.2%)	58.8% (-0.0%)
MemphisMEM@Florida StateFSU	58.8% (-0.0%)	58.9% (+0.0%)
Oklahoma StateOKST@TulsaTLSA	58.9% (+0.1%)	58.6% (-0.3%)
UTSAUTSA@TexasTEX	57.7% (-1.1%)	58.9% (+0.0%)
North TexasUNT@Texas TechTTU	58.6% (-0.3%)	59.0% (+0.2%)
Gardner-WebbGWEB@CharlotteCLT	58.7% (-0.1%)	58.9% (+0.0%)
Florida InternationalFIU@Florida AtlanticFAU	58.8% (-0.1%)	58.9% (+0.0%)
South FloridaUSF@Southern MissUSM	58.8% (+0.0%)	58.9% (+0.0%)
Coastal CarolinaCCU@TempleTEM	58.9% (+0.0%)	58.6% (-0.2%)
UABUAB@ArkansasARK	58.4% (-0.4%)	59.0% (+0.1%)
App StateAPP@East CarolinaECU	58.9% (+0.1%)	58.8% (-0.1%)
RiceRICE@HoustonHOU	59.0% (+0.2%)	58.8% (-0.1%)

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

4.2%

Any 1 loss

98.6%

17.4%

100.0%

5.2%

100.0%

0.3%

100.0%

0.4%

99.8%

0.5%

99.2%

0.4%

98.9%

2.3%

98.8%

1.6%

98.7%

1.1%

98.4%

1.3%

96.2%

4.2%

Any 2 losses

80.0%

29.9%

100.0%

0.5%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.3%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.8%

0.6%

99.4%

0.5%

99.1%

1.5%

98.7%

0.1%

98.7%

0.2%

98.5%

1.7%

98.2%

2.9%

98.2%

2.1%

96.4%

5.4%

96.0%

0.2%

95.5%

0.4%

91.3%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

79.7%

<0.1%

78.1%

0.2%

75.2%

0.2%

75.1%

0.2%

75.0%

<0.1%

73.0%

<0.1%

71.3%

0.2%

70.5%

0.1%

70.3%

0.1%

70.1%

0.1%

69.5%

0.3%

67.2%

0.1%

65.7%

0.2%

64.3%

0.5%

64.1%

0.5%

63.9%

0.1%

62.1%

0.4%

61.5%

1.0%

60.5%

0.8%

59.9%

0.5%

57.4%

0.4%

55.9%

1.7%

54.7%

1.4%

48.5%

0.7%

48.4%

2.3%

47.9%

1.1%

Any 3 losses

44.5%

27.5%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.5%

0.2%

99.3%

0.3%

98.8%

<0.1%

98.0%

0.2%

97.1%

0.5%

96.7%

0.1%

84.2%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

81.3%

<0.1%

80.2%

<0.1%

78.8%

0.1%

77.8%

<0.1%

77.4%

0.2%

76.9%

0.1%

76.9%

<0.1%

76.0%

0.2%

75.0%

0.2%

75.0%

<0.1%

74.2%

<0.1%

72.3%

0.3%

71.9%

0.3%

71.4%

<0.1%

70.4%

<0.1%

68.8%

0.3%

66.7%

0.2%

65.6%

<0.1%

65.0%

<0.1%

64.7%

<0.1%

64.4%

0.4%

63.5%

0.7%

63.0%

<0.1%

62.8%

0.5%

62.7%

<0.1%

62.6%

0.2%

62.5%

<0.1%

62.5%

<0.1%

62.5%

<0.1%

62.4%

0.2%

61.3%

0.5%

61.1%

0.6%

61.0%

0.6%

60.9%

<0.1%

60.4%

1.0%

59.6%

<0.1%

59.1%

<0.1%

58.7%

1.2%

58.6%

<0.1%

58.1%

<0.1%

56.3%

2.2%

54.9%

0.1%

54.4%

1.7%

52.7%

0.2%

51.1%

0.8%

50.3%

0.2%

50.0%

<0.1%

48.9%

1.5%

46.4%

<0.1%

46.1%

0.2%

45.8%

2.9%

18.8%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

11.8%

<0.1%

9.4%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

7.5%

0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

6.0%

<0.1%

5.9%

<0.1%

5.5%

<0.1%

5.0%

0.1%

4.7%

<0.1%

4.6%

<0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

4.1%

0.1%

4.0%

<0.1%

3.7%

0.1%

3.7%

0.3%

3.6%

0.2%

2.9%

<0.1%

2.7%

0.4%

2.7%

0.2%

2.7%

<0.1%

2.7%

0.8%

2.6%

<0.1%

2.4%

0.1%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.2%

<0.1%

2.0%

0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

1.8%

0.5%

1.8%

0.3%

1.8%

0.2%

1.7%

0.9%

1.7%

0.2%

1.6%

0.4%

1.4%

<0.1%

1.4%

<0.1%

1.4%

0.1%

1.4%

0.1%

1.1%

0.3%

0.8%

0.1%

0.7%

Any 4 losses

11.1%

11.8%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

81.8%

<0.1%

81.8%

<0.1%

78.6%

<0.1%

78.6%

<0.1%

78.3%

<0.1%

76.5%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

71.8%

<0.1%

71.4%

<0.1%

65.1%

<0.1%

64.1%

0.1%

64.0%

<0.1%

61.8%

0.2%

61.5%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

57.7%

<0.1%

57.4%

0.1%

55.8%

0.2%

54.7%

<0.1%

54.6%

0.2%

54.5%

<0.1%

54.4%

<0.1%

52.9%

<0.1%

52.5%

<0.1%

48.4%

0.3%

47.9%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

21.1%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

13.0%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

10.8%

<0.1%

10.7%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

6.5%

<0.1%

5.9%

<0.1%

5.8%

<0.1%

5.7%

<0.1%

5.6%

<0.1%

5.5%

<0.1%

5.4%

<0.1%

5.0%

<0.1%

4.9%

<0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.7%

<0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

4.3%

0.2%

4.2%

0.3%

4.2%

<0.1%

3.8%

0.3%

3.8%

0.1%

3.8%

<0.1%

3.6%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.4%

0.1%

3.4%

0.7%

3.3%

<0.1%

3.2%

0.2%

3.0%

0.4%

3.0%

0.2%

2.7%

0.2%

2.6%

<0.1%

2.5%

0.1%

2.5%

<0.1%

2.5%

<0.1%

2.4%

<0.1%

2.4%

0.1%

2.3%

0.5%

2.2%

0.2%

2.1%

<0.1%

1.8%

0.1%

1.8%

0.2%

1.8%

1.0%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.8%

0.1%

1.6%

1.2%

1.5%

0.3%

1.3%

0.8%

1.2%

0.2%

1.1%

<0.1%

1.1%

0.3%

0.9%

0.6%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com