SMUMustangs

3-1 T9th (0-0) in ACC

Data from 2024-09-22 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

26.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/24	@NevadaNEV	W29-24
1	8/31	vsHouston ChristianHCU	W59-7
2	9/06	vsBYUBYU	L15-18
4	9/21	vsTCUTCU	W66-42
5	9/28	vsFlorida StateFSU	Win prob:71%
6	10/05	@LouisvilleLOU	Win prob:41%
8	10/19	@StanfordSTAN	Win prob:88%
9	10/26	@DukeDUKE	Win prob:53%
10	11/02	vsPittsburghPITT	Win prob:82%
12	11/16	vsBoston CollegeBC	Win prob:84%
13	11/23	@VirginiaUVA	Win prob:81%
14	11/30	vsCaliforniaCAL	Win prob:78%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	5.7%	99.2%
7-1	22.7%	73.0%
6-2	33.0%	14.3%
5-3	24.8%	0.1%
4-4	10.7%	0%
3-5	2.7%	0%
2-6	0.4%	0%
1-7	0.0%	0%
0-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

38.7%

36.8%

16.5%

4.5%

3.4%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
LouisvilleLOU@Notre DameND	26.9% (-0.1%)	27.0% (+0.0%)
LouisianaUL@Wake ForestWAKE	26.9% (-0.1%)	27.1% (+0.1%)
Western KentuckyWKU@Boston CollegeBC	26.9% (-0.1%)	27.0% (+0.1%)
StanfordSTAN@ClemsonCLEM	36.0% (+9.1%)	26.5% (-0.4%)
North CarolinaUNC@DukeDUKE	27.0% (+0.1%)	26.9% (-0.0%)
Holy CrossHC@SyracuseSYR	26.8% (-0.1%)	27.0% (+0.0%)
Florida StateFSU@SMUSMU	10.9% (-16.1%)	33.5% (+6.6%)
Northern IllinoisNIU@NC StateNCSU	26.8% (-0.1%)	27.0% (+0.1%)
Virginia TechVT@MiamiMIA	28.7% (+1.7%)	26.6% (-0.4%)

Best Winner Combination for

Louisville

Wake Forest

Western Kentucky

Stanford

Holy Cross

Florida State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

SMU

CCG: 33.5% • Scenario: 71.0%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

99.2%

5.7%

Any 1 loss

73.0%

22.7%

87.1%

1.1%

86.1%

1.7%

85.0%

0.8%

84.4%

1.4%

82.4%

1.3%

80.8%

5.2%

79.2%

2.4%

58.1%

8.8%

Any 2 losses

14.3%

32.9%

0.3%

30.8%

0.2%

26.9%

0.4%

26.9%

0.3%

26.2%

0.3%

26.2%

0.4%

25.7%

0.2%

25.0%

0.2%

24.0%

0.2%

23.7%

0.4%

23.4%

0.5%

23.4%

0.4%

23.3%

0.3%

23.1%

0.7%

22.5%

1.5%

21.5%

0.6%

20.5%

1.1%

20.3%

0.7%

19.3%

1.2%

18.2%

1.0%

16.6%

2.1%

12.4%

1.2%

12.2%

2.4%

10.2%

1.9%

9.9%

1.6%

9.4%

2.0%

9.0%

3.4%

8.5%

7.6%

Any 3 losses

0.7%

0.8%

0.1%

0.7%

0.3%

0.7%

0.1%

0.6%

0.2%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com