Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L17-19 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W48-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-0 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L14-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:7% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:23% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:50% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:31% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:35% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:39% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:12% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:35% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| 6-3 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 3.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 12.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 25.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 31.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 20.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 5.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 0.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 1.8%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
5.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22