Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W48-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L17-23 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L20-23 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L28-32 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:60% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:55% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:79% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:27% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:33% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:42% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:79% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.4% | 96.7% |
| 7-2 | 3.9% | 53.2% |
| 6-3 | 14.4% | 3.1% |
| 5-4 | 26.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 28.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 18.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 6.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.8% (-0.2%) | 3.2% (+0.2%) | |
| 3.7% (+0.8%) | 2.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.2% (+0.3%) | 2.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.9% (-0.1%) | 3.3% (+0.4%) | |
| 2.8% (-0.1%) | 3.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 3.1% (+0.2%) | 2.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.7% (-2.3%) | 4.5% (+1.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Baylor
Colorado
Texas Tech
Houston
Utah
Oklahoma StateKansasCCG: 12.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
KansasCCG: 4.5% • Scenario: 59.8%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
96.7%
0.4%Any 1 loss
53.2%
3.9%66.2%
0.3%
59.6%
1.2%59.0%
0.1%58.0%
0.1%
57.5%
0.3%
54.2%
0.3%
50.3%
0.6%
38.5%
0.9%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22