Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
33.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W69-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W51-10 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W71-0 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W25-15 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:93% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:95% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:48% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:89% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:98% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:33% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 11.4% | 99.3% |
| 7-1 | 40.5% | 53.4% |
| 6-2 | 37.7% | 1.3% |
| 5-3 | 9.3% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 33.6% (+0.1%) | 32.8% (-0.6%) | |
| 37.0% (+3.6%) | 32.7% (-0.8%) | |
| 31.7% (-1.7%) | 34.7% (+1.3%) | |
| 42.6% (+9.2%) | 33.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 33.1% (-0.4%) | 33.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 34.8% (+1.3%) | 33.0% (-0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Auburn
Kentucky
Georgia
Mississippi State
South AlabamaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaCCG: 34.7% • Scenario: 57.9%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.3%
11.3%Any 1 loss
53.5%
40.2%
100.0%
0.1%
76.7%
0.4%75.0%
1.5%
71.5%
0.9%
70.7%
0.6%68.1%
0.2%55.6%
12.6%49.3%
23.8%Any 2 losses
1.9%
37.7%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%54.4%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.9%
0.3%30.8%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%6.6%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.3%
0.3%3.4%
3.0%3.3%
0.7%2.9%
0.7%2.9%
0.4%2.8%
1.6%2.6%
1.2%2.2%
0.4%1.9%
1.9%1.3%
1.0%0.6%
25.8%100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22