Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
14.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W76-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W52-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W40-6 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W52-13 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:82% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:67% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:53% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:64% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:88% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:34% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 4.5% | 99.0% |
| 7-1 | 20.4% | 48.5% |
| 6-2 | 33.5% | 1.1% |
| 5-3 | 27.0% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 11.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 14.8% (+0.1%) | 14.5% (-0.3%) | |
| 4.3% (-10.5%) | 17.0% (+2.2%) | |
| 15.9% (+1.2%) | 13.9% (-0.9%) | |
| 16.9% (+2.2%) | 14.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 15.1% (+0.4%) | 14.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 15.5% (+0.8%) | 14.5% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Auburn
Kentucky
Georgia
Mississippi State
South AlabamaCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Ole MissCCG: 17.0% • Scenario: 82.3%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.0%
4.5%Any 1 loss
48.5%
20.4%
70.4%
2.3%66.0%
1.0%
60.8%
0.8%
59.8%
4.1%
58.6%
0.7%56.8%
0.1%
52.9%
2.6%32.3%
8.8%Any 2 losses
1.5%
24.9%5.7%
0.1%5.4%
0.2%4.7%
0.3%4.0%
0.5%3.8%
0.9%3.3%
2.0%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
0.7%2.7%
<0.1%2.4%
0.4%2.0%
0.1%1.9%
0.6%1.5%
1.3%1.4%
0.4%1.2%
0.6%1.2%
<0.1%1.0%
4.3%0.9%
1.9%0.8%
7.9%0.5%
2.4%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22