Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
61.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W56-7 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W51-3 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:99% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:83% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:66% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:99% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:98% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:96% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:95% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:89% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 42.3% | 98.8% |
| 7-1 | 41.8% | 46.3% |
| 6-2 | 13.8% | 1.3% |
| 5-3 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 61.3% (-0.0%) | 61.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 64.9% (+3.5%) | 60.6% (-0.8%) | |
| 63.3% (+2.0%) | 59.9% (-1.4%) | |
| 30.9% (-30.4%) | 61.6% (+0.3%) | |
| 61.4% (+0.0%) | 61.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 61.6% (+0.3%) | 61.2% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Auburn
Kentucky
Georgia
South Alabama
ArkansasCCG: 69.7% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
GeorgiaTexasCCG: 63.6% • Scenario: 41.7%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.8%
42.3%Any 1 loss
46.3%
41.8%
70.4%
0.7%66.7%
2.4%
65.7%
0.4%
65.0%
1.0%63.8%
1.7%
63.1%
5.1%
59.5%
9.0%31.3%
21.6%Any 2 losses
1.8%
8.9%12.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.3%
0.2%5.2%
<0.1%4.7%
0.3%4.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
0.4%2.5%
0.5%2.4%
0.2%1.6%
1.3%1.4%
0.2%1.3%
1.1%0.8%
2.6%0.6%
0.8%0.5%
0.5%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22