Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W51-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W16-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-19 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L15-25 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:80% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:17% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:75% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:36% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:49% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:29% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:47% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.3% | 95.3% |
| 6-2 | 3.0% | 21.7% |
| 5-3 | 13.1% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 28.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 31.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 18.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 5.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1% (+0.2%) | 0.1% (-0.8%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.1%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.3%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
Alabama
Mississippi State
LSU
ArkansasCCG: 6.2% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OklahomaCCG: 1.1% • Scenario: 80.5%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
94.8%
0.2%Any 1 loss
22.1%
2.7%
100.0%
<0.1%
43.2%
<0.1%
35.6%
<0.1%
31.4%
0.3%25.4%
0.3%24.3%
0.4%17.8%
0.5%
16.7%
1.1%Any 2 losses
23.5%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%20.0%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22