Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
18.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-17 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W20-12 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L44-56 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W24-7 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:82% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:75% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:95% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:73% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:92% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:92% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:35% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 12.7% | 89.7% |
| 6-2 | 37.9% | 17.9% |
| 5-3 | 33.5% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 13.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 17.7% (-0.5%) | 22.3% (+4.2%) | |
| 17.4% (-0.7%) | 21.1% (+3.0%) | |
| 18.0% (-0.2%) | 18.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 18.2% (+0.0%) | 18.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 17.3% (-0.9%) | 25.0% (+6.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UAB
Charlotte
Temple
Navy
TulsaCCG: 42.9% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TulsaCCG: 25.0% • Scenario: 11.8%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
89.7%
12.7%Any 1 loss
17.9%
37.9%
33.0%
1.0%30.1%
1.1%
27.8%
2.7%26.9%
0.6%
26.1%
4.6%
18.1%
4.1%
13.7%
23.6%Any 2 losses
1.5%
0.3%1.8%
0.1%1.4%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29