Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L19-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W31-14 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:6% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:39% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:72% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:75% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:70% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:67% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:40% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:63% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.2% | 98.1% |
| 8-1 | 3.1% | 41.2% |
| 7-2 | 13.8% | 3.0% |
| 6-3 | 27.6% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 29.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 18.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 6.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.7% (-0.1%) | 1.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.8% (+0.9%) | 1.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.1%) | 1.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 3.2% (+1.3%) | 1.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.1%) | 2.1% (+0.3%) | |
| 15.0% (+13.2%) | 1.0% (-0.8%) | |
| 1.7% (-0.2%) | 1.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (-0.4%) | 2.5% (+0.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Nebraska
UCLA
Michigan StateIowa
PurdueCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IowaCCG: 15.0% • Scenario: 5.8%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.1%
0.2%Any 1 loss
41.1%
3.1%
86.0%
<0.1%75.5%
<0.1%74.7%
<0.1%73.2%
<0.1%
71.5%
0.2%
69.2%
<0.1%
69.1%
0.2%
31.2%
2.3%Any 2 losses
3.0%
13.8%31.3%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%20.5%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.4%
0.3%7.4%
0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%4.4%
0.8%3.7%
0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.5%
1.4%2.8%
0.9%2.6%
1.1%1.9%
1.0%1.8%
3.4%0.7%
3.6%Any 3 losses
1.6%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29