Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W38-20 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L27-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-16 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-0 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L41-44 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:45% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:60% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:49% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:46% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:16% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:17% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:61% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 97.6% |
| 7-2 | 1.5% | 54.4% |
| 6-3 | 8.3% | 4.9% |
| 5-4 | 22.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 31.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 24.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 10.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5% (+1.2%) | 0.3% (-0.9%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.2% (-0.1%) | 1.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 1.3% (+0.0%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (-0.1%) | 1.4% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Cincinnati
Colorado
Utah
BYU
West VirginiaCCG: 3.9% • Scenario: 0.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
CincinnatiCCG: 2.5% • Scenario: 44.7%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.6%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
54.4%
1.5%
66.4%
0.1%61.4%
0.1%
60.9%
<0.1%
59.2%
0.5%48.4%
0.1%
46.8%
0.5%
46.3%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
4.9%
8.3%13.2%
<0.1%11.2%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
0.3%8.6%
0.1%7.8%
<0.1%6.8%
0.6%6.7%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.4%
0.6%5.4%
0.5%5.2%
0.5%5.2%
0.4%4.3%
0.3%4.2%
0.1%3.7%
0.6%3.5%
0.6%3.5%
2.5%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
0.3%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06