Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W50-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L24-27 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-13 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W38-20 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L28-42 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:78% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:41% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:58% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:10% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:73% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:64% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:14% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 0.1% | 36.5% |
| 6-3 | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| 5-4 | 13.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 30.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 32.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 16.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 4.2% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Maryland
Minnesota
Iowa
USC
Illinois
Rutgers
Ohio StateCCG: 0.4% • Scenario: 1.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MarylandIowaIllinoisCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 22.2%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
36.5%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06