Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
23.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W61-39 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W22-10 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L7-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W23-10 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L22-28 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:53% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:81% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:67% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:66% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:88% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:66% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:78% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 8.6% | 95.2% |
| 7-2 | 26.1% | 53.0% |
| 6-3 | 33.0% | 5.3% |
| 5-4 | 22.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 8.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 22.8% (-1.0%) | 24.6% (+0.8%) | |
| 23.1% (-0.7%) | 26.2% (+2.4%) | |
| 24.0% (+0.2%) | 23.6% (-0.2%) | |
| 36.8% (+13.0%) | 9.2% (-14.6%) | |
| 21.9% (-1.9%) | 27.0% (+3.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UCF
Colorado
Arizona StateArizona
West VirginiaCCG: 46.0% • Scenario: 1.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ArizonaCCG: 36.8% • Scenario: 52.9%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
95.2%
8.6%Any 1 loss
53.0%
26.1%
63.9%
4.5%60.3%
4.4%
58.5%
1.2%56.7%
1.9%53.9%
2.3%
47.1%
7.6%40.9%
4.2%Any 2 losses
5.3%
33.0%9.2%
1.3%9.1%
2.3%8.1%
0.6%7.3%
1.0%7.1%
0.6%6.9%
1.0%6.4%
3.9%6.2%
0.3%5.8%
1.3%5.7%
0.6%5.6%
1.1%5.0%
2.2%4.9%
0.3%4.6%
0.6%4.6%
3.9%4.4%
1.8%4.2%
2.1%3.8%
2.1%3.6%
1.2%2.9%
3.8%2.6%
1.0%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06