BYUCougars

5-0 T1st (2-0) in B12

Data from 2024-10-06 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

23.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsSouthern IllinoisSIU	W41-13
2	9/06	@SMUSMU	W18-15
3	9/14	@WyomingWYO	W34-14
4	9/21	vsKansas StateKSU	W38-9
5	9/28	@BaylorBAY	W34-28
7	10/12	vsArizonaARIZ	Win prob:47%
8	10/18	vsOklahoma StateOKST	Win prob:73%
9	10/26	@UCFUCF	Win prob:55%
11	11/09	@UtahUTAH	Win prob:42%
12	11/16	vsKansasKU	Win prob:62%
13	11/23	@Arizona StateASU	Win prob:55%
14	11/30	vsHoustonHOU	Win prob:82%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	2.2%	100.0%
8-1	12.0%	90.4%
7-2	26.0%	38.4%
6-3	30.5%	1.3%
5-4	20.2%	0%
4-5	7.4%	0%
3-6	1.5%	0%
2-7	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

42.5%

25.9%

15.8%

8.1%

7.7%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
CincinnatiCIN@UCFUCF	23.2% (-0.3%)	23.7% (+0.3%)
Kansas StateKSU@ColoradoCOLO	23.1% (-0.3%)	24.6% (+1.2%)
UtahUTAH@Arizona StateASU	22.9% (-0.6%)	24.2% (+0.8%)
ArizonaARIZ@BYUBYU	10.1% (-13.4%)	38.5% (+15.1%)
Iowa StateISU@West VirginiaWVU	22.9% (-0.6%)	24.4% (+1.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

UCF

Colorado

Arizona State

BYU

West Virginia

CCG: 44.6% • Scenario: 0.9%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

BYU

CCG: 38.5% • Scenario: 47.1%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

2.2%

Any 1 loss

90.4%

12.0%

93.3%

0.8%

92.1%

1.9%

92.0%

0.5%

92.0%

1.3%

91.4%

1.8%

90.1%

3.2%

86.5%

2.5%

Any 2 losses

38.4%

26.0%

53.4%

0.7%

52.9%

0.4%

52.1%

0.3%

51.1%

0.2%

50.7%

0.4%

50.6%

1.1%

48.0%

1.4%

46.9%

1.1%

45.6%

0.5%

45.2%

0.7%

44.7%

1.8%

44.2%

2.5%

43.5%

0.7%

40.7%

2.5%

36.6%

1.3%

33.9%

1.0%

32.2%

2.0%

29.1%

2.0%

28.9%

1.5%

26.9%

0.6%

24.3%

3.5%

Any 3 losses

1.4%

27.9%

4.7%

0.2%

3.8%

0.6%

3.8%

0.4%

3.4%

0.1%

2.7%

0.5%

2.6%

0.1%

2.5%

0.2%

2.5%

0.4%

2.4%

0.3%

2.2%

0.9%

2.1%

0.6%

2.0%

0.8%

1.9%

1.5%

1.7%

1.5%

1.6%

0.7%

1.5%

0.4%

1.5%

0.3%

1.5%

0.7%

1.4%

2.1%

1.4%

0.3%

1.2%

2.2%

1.1%

0.4%

1.0%

0.7%

0.9%

1.0%

0.9%

2.9%

0.8%

2.9%

0.7%

0.5%

0.7%

0.4%

0.7%

0.4%

0.7%

1.2%

0.6%

1.4%

0.6%

1.2%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com